How would the ETL level for the human race be estimated and monitored?


Every event and activity can be expressed in terms of its impact on the Extinction Threat Level, be it positive or negative. The impact and relationship between activities can be very complex and are open to debate. The accuracy of the reported ETL will vary, but over time should improve. In reality, the accuracy is less important than the debate prompted and also, one hopes, the common purpose recognised - ie to reduce the ETL for the human species.

Initially, the collective expertise used to set the Doomsday Clock would be a good starting point. The Doomsday Clock is set based on inputs from an esteemed board of sponsors, which includes the President of the Royal Society Lord Rees, the well-known scientist Dr Stephen Hawking and 18 Nobel Prize winners.

In the future the hope is that an independently funded institute would be set up dedicated to the concept of the Universal Extinction Constant. The sole purpose of this institute would be to calculate, report and improve the accuracy of the Extinction Threat Level (ETL) for the human race. It would take feedback from many sources and calculate the impact of events and activities on the human ETL.

Ultimately, we could establish and monitor the ETL for many other species. We would then have the ability to create an index. Each species would, in effect, have a 'life bond', the value of which would go up or down depending on the human race's stewardship of the planet and ability to mitigate threats.

The ambition is that universities and other centres of learning would bid for the right to host this institute and develop the accuracy of the ETL measure. An international charter would protect the independence of the institute and guarantee funding.